How Florida’s Cooling Market Reflects a National Trend

Across the United States, the real estate market is undergoing a notable shift. With over $700 billion worth of homes currently on the market—the most in five years—buyers now have more options than they’ve seen since before the pandemic¹. However, about 44% of listings remain unsold after 60 days, a trend that signals a clear cooling from the red-hot pace of recent years¹. Inventory has risen year-over-year for 19 consecutive months, increasing by over 30% in both April and May 2025². Yet, even with more homes available, pending sales are down around 3%, and the average home is sitting on the market for 51 days—about a week longer than last year³. At the same time, high mortgage rates hovering between 6.8% and 7% are squeezing affordability, pushing many potential buyers into the rental market. In fact, 35% of Americans now say they prefer renting over buying, a level not seen in recent memory⁴.

Despite the slowdown in activity, national home prices continue to inch upward, rising 1.4% in April, with forecasts from Reuters and Goldman Sachs predicting moderate annual price growth of 3–3.5% through 2027⁵⁶. However, affordability remains a significant challenge, with the median U.S. home price sitting between $414,000 and $440,000⁷. The cost gap between renting and buying is widening too, with new homeowners paying approximately $440 more per month than renters⁴. For the first time since 2013, there are about 34% more sellers than buyers, creating conditions that strongly favor buyers in many areas⁸. Markets like Indianapolis and Nashville are seeing dramatic shifts, with buyers outnumbered two-to-one by sellers in some neighborhoods⁸.

Florida, once a pandemic-era boom state, is now reflecting a more dramatic market correction. Median home prices in Florida fell 3.2% year-over-year to $409,600 in April 2025, while closed sales dropped nearly 9%, and active listings jumped 16.4%⁹. Cities like Sarasota and Manatee County have seen double-digit price drops—townhomes down 15%, single-family homes down 12–14%—and inventory rising above a six-month supply¹⁰. Miami continues to perform slightly better, with median prices up 3.9% to about $580,000, but overall, Florida's market has cooled significantly¹¹. Several factors contribute to this trend: a slowdown in migration, a surge in new construction catching up with demand, and skyrocketing insurance costs in hurricane-prone areas¹². These pressures, combined with growing concerns over long-term climate risks and flood insurance, are beginning to affect buyer behavior and investment decisions¹³.

Looking ahead, buyers in both Florida and the broader U.S. market are gaining more leverage, thanks to rising inventory and tempered competition. Sellers, on the other hand, must recalibrate expectations and prepare for longer time on the market or necessary price adjustments. Rentals are emerging as a strong alternative in Florida’s key cities like Tampa and Miami, offering better monthly affordability and continued demand⁴. Investors may still find opportunity in the rental market, while end users need to stay sharp about insurance costs and location-specific risks. Overall, the housing market in 2025 is entering a phase of slower, more sustainable growth, with national price increases expected to stay in the 3–5% annual range⁶. While Florida’s shake-up reflects a broader national trend, it also serves as a cautionary tale of how fast markets can shift—and why smart, informed decisions are more important than ever.

Footnotes

1. Business Insider, "There's a record $700 billion of homes for sale in the US", June 2025 ↩ ↩²

2. Realtor.com, Monthly Housing Trends Report, May 2025 ↩

3. Redfin Market Data, May 2025 ↩

4. Axios, "Why more Americans prefer renting over buying", June 2025 ↩ ↩² ↩³

5. Reuters, "US Home Price Outlook", May 2025 ↩

6. Goldman Sachs Real Estate Forecast, Q2 2025 ↩ ↩²

7. Zillow Home Value Index, April 2025 ↩

8. Axios Indianapolis, "Indianapolis homebuyers gain the upper hand", June 2025 ↩ ↩²

9. Florida Realtors®, Statewide Housing Report, April 2025 ↩

10. Sarasota/Manatee MLS Market Summary, May 2025 ↩

11. Redfin Miami Market Snapshot, May 2025 ↩

12. Business Insider, "Florida's grim warning for America's real estate", June 2025 ↩

13. FEMA Flood Insurance Outlook & Forbes Climate Risk Report, 2025 ↩